Lessons from integrated seasonal forecast-crop modelling in Africa: a systematic review

Open Access JournalSeasonal forecasts coupled with crop models can potentially enhance decision-making in smallholder farming in Africa. The study sought to inform future research through identifying and critiquing crop and climate models, and techniques for integrating seasonal forecast information and crop models. Peer-reviewed articles related to crop modelling and seasonal forecasting were sourced from Google Scholar, Web of Science, AGRIS, and JSTOR. Nineteen articles were selected from a search outcome of 530. About 74% of the studies used mechanistic models, which are favored for climate risk management research as they account for crop management practices. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Hamburg, are the predominant global climate models (GCMs) used across Africa. A range of approaches have been assessed to improve the effectiveness of the connection between seasonal forecast information and mechanistic crop models, which include GCMs, analogue, stochastic disaggregation, and statistical prediction through converting seasonal weather summaries into the daily weather. GCM outputs are produced in a format compatible with mechanistic crop models. Such outputs are critical for researchers to have information on the merits and demerits of tools and approaches on integrating seasonal forecast and crop models. There is however need to widen such research to other regions in Africa, crop, farming systems, and policy

Climate and southern Africa's water-energy-food nexus

In southern Africa, the connections between climate and the water-energy-food nexus are strong. Physical and socioeconomic exposure to climate is high in many areas and in crucial economic sectors. Spatial interdependence is also high, driven for example, by the regional extent of many climate anomalies and river basins and aquifers that span national boundaries. There is now strong evidence of the effects of individual climate anomalies, but associations between national rainfall and Gross Domestic Product and crop production remain relatively weak. The majority of climate models project decreases in annual precipitation for southern Africa, typically by as much as 20% by the 2080s. Impact models suggest these changes would propagate into reduced water availability and crop yields. Recognition of spatial and sectoral interdependencies should inform policies, institutions and investments for enhancing water, energy and food security. Three key political and economic instruments could be strengthened for this purpose; the Southern African Development Community, the Southern African Power Pool, and trade of agricultural products amounting to significant transfers of embedded water

Decision support tools for site-specific fertilizer recommendations and agricultural planning in selected countries in sub-Sahara Africa

Peer Revie

Using seasonal climate forecasts to improve maize production decision support in Zimbabwe

Maize production in marginal tropical regions is at great risk due to rainfall variability and climate change. Climate change is set to increase the variability and uncertainty of inter-annual rainfall. Farmers who depend on rainfed maize production for their livelihoods would therefore benefit from improved climate based forecasting of production likelihood. In this study we developed a simple maize production decision support tool for Masvingo by using seasonal climate forecasts and a crop model to forecast maize yields likelihood prior to the season. We follow up on earlier studies carried out in Zimbabwe which show that the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can be used to forecast rainfall and maize yields in Zimbabwe. An ENSO based seasonal climate analysis tool (RAINMAN) was used to produce probabilistic monthly climate forecasts for Masvingo corresponding to the phases of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). The climate forecasts were used to run a crop model (AquaCrop) for a variety of scenarios relevant to maize production (monthly rainfall, cultivar selection, planting date, and fertility level). The results of the simulations were similar to those observed by Phillips et al. (1997) and formed the basis for the development of an operational decision support tool. Simulated maize yields varied from 1.2 t/ha to 5.8 t/ha. The simulated yields were higher than expected average yields in a marginal region like Masvingo especially under small holder farming. The work suggested that optimal use of forecasts may lead to improved maize production in Masvingo. The study set a platform for the development of operational climate based maize production decision support tools in Zimbabwe.status: publishe

East Africa's Climate: Planning for an Uncertain Future

Rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns will have significant impacts across east African society. Decision-makers need accessible information on likely climate change if they are to plan appropriately for this uncertain future. This factsheet considers how the climate is likely to change in east Africa, and the likely implications for: • water availability • sanitation • livelihoods, including agriculture and fresh water fisheries • hydropower • the potential for wind energy

East African Climate Variability and Change

Scientists focusing on climate change in east Africa are interrogating climate models to provide more reliable information for decision-makers. Their burning questions include: • How will aspects of climate that are relevant to decision-makers change? Will heavy rain and droughts increase? Will the region get wetter or drier in future? • How will climate change impact on above- and below-ground water flow, the water levels of Lake Victoria, and underground water storage? • What are the implications for rural livelihoods, including those dependent on rain-fed agriculture and fishing? And what are the policy and governance considerations within these sectors? • How can cities design the most resilient water, sanitation and hygiene systems, in light of future climate change predictions